Market Outlook Report – November 2019

Market Overview

November 2019 

UK General Election – 12th December

Boris Johnson’s failure to deliver and secure a deal with the European Union is due to a lack of confidence within Parliament. Subsequently, December 12th is the date that has been marked for a general election, with the Prime Minister’s intentions to secure a working majority which will hopefully result in the passing of the final Brexit deal. The Conservative’s biggest threat is Labour’s slow incremental increase in the overall share of the vote. The most recent results show that Labour have seen an increase of 7%, from 22% to 29% on the opinion polls. The Conservatives have seen a 5% increase, from 34% to 39%. If this current rate continues all the way up to December 12th, the final polls between the two constituents will be a much finer margin.

Relevance/ Impact 

NHS Privatisation

Towards the end of October, the Queen made her speech to the public, in which the Labour party were quick to point out that there were no efforts to pledge protection on NHS privatisation. Over the past ten years, the number of private contracts being offered has increased year on year. As it now stands, 18% of NHS funding now goes to private companies such as Richard Branson’s Virgin Care and the US based Priory Group. Speculation over this matter focuses concerns around the time of the assumed Brexit decision, which will act as the catalyst for the potential direction of the NHS’s future. The US medical industry are on standby, waiting to be given the opportunity for further contracts to be issued under the prediction that, if Boris Johnson wins the general election, there will be further talks of a Johnson-Trump trade deal and the NHS will continue down the road of further privatisation.

Relevance/ Impact 

US / China Trade War

The origin of the current US/China trade war arises from President Trump’s concerns over the US’ increasing deficit. Coming up to the President’s year for re-election, it is absolutely in Trump’s interests to bring the US deficit down in order to advertise the state of the US economy to a population who will then be willing to give the current president another term in office. Subsequently, China have received the brunt of the tariffs, which have been imposed on hundreds of products which are exported to the US daily. The total value of goods sanctioned approximates $250bn. The issue then became ‘tit-for-tat’, as China retaliated with similar tariffs on US goods.

Relevance/ Impact 

US Federal Reserve Cut Interest Rates

Amid continued concerns about global trade tensions and slowing economic growth, the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25% for the third time this year at the end of October. The first interest rate cut since the Global Financial Crisis was implemented in July of this year.

This decision also came about as it was revealed that the US economy has slowed to an annual rate of 1.9% in the final quarter of 2019, the slowest rate of expansion in 2019.

Relevance/ Impact 

UK Growth Slowest In a Decade

Official figures released this quarter have revealed that Britain’s economy has grown at the slowest annual rate in almost a decade.

Relevance/Impact

Chinese GDP Slowest in 30 Years

China has felt the impact of the ongoing trade war with the US, GDP rose 6% in the July-September period from a year ago, the slowest pace since the early 1990s.

Relevance/ Impact 


Sources: Information is included in this article has been obtained from a range of sources including seminars, webinars, industry publications and general media comments. This information was sourced from November 2019. 

Disclaimer: This document represents the opinion of Reeves Independent only and is not intended as advice and no investment decisions should be made solely on the back of this email. Always seek independent financial advice before taking any action. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. All investments carry the risk that you will get back less than you put in.